What will the Nikkei average be at the end of this year? ] 29.3% of investors answered “¥45,000 to ¥47,000,” and 27.6% answered “¥43,000 to ¥45,000.” 《Nikkei CNBC Investor Survey》
Nikkei CNBC, Inc. Press Release: September 1, 2025 [What will the Nikkei average be at the end of this year? ] 29.3% of investors answered “¥45,000 to ¥47,000,” and 27.6% answered “¥43,000 to ¥45,000.” (Nikkei CNBC Investor Survey) On August 26, 2025, Nikkei CNBC Inc. (Headquarters: Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo; President and CEO: Genichi Takenouchi) announced the results of a survey conducted online between August 18 and 24, 2025, targeting active investors, asking, “What will the Nikkei average be at the end of this year?” The results are as follows: [Details page URL]
https://www.nikkei-cnbc.co.jp/information/3151540
https://prcdn.freetls.fastly.net/release_image/28693/191/28693-191-e9ef78a8dc5024a3e299d9afb28bcff5-750×422.jpg The survey asked respondents to select an answer from the range below in response to the following question: “The Nikkei Stock Average has hit a new all-time high, surpassing the 43,000 yen mark for the first time. Buying driven by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut, Trump’s easing of tariffs, and the LDP’s move to bring forward the presidential election… has pushed up the market. How far will it rise or fall by the end of the year? Please give us your exact prediction for the Nikkei Stock Average at the end of the year.”
https://prcdn.freetls.fastly.net/release_image/28693/191/28693-191-1021a74ba85c64d1e48f032f588901d4-700×567.png On the August 29th (Friday) broadcast of “Hiru Express,” Nikkei CNBC Commentary Chair Seiichiro Matsumoto and Nikkei CNBC anchor Tomoya Okamura discussed the survey results and their background. Image
URL: https://prcdn.freetls.fastly.net/release_image/28693/191/28693-191-57823defd87a0d68657dffde754179fd-1920×1080.jpg It seems that many people believe that favorable supply and demand, such as share buybacks, are supporting the market, and that even if it temporarily drops, it will recover. Perhaps the mindset is becoming similar to that of the U.S. stock market. I received more positive responses than I expected. It would be great to see the Nikkei average reach 50,000 yen next year (heart)
●The program footage will be available for free on “Nikkei CNBC online” and the YouTube channel 〈Nikkei CNBC online〉 →
https://online.nikkei-cnbc.co.jp/vod/60605 〈Nikkei CNBC Official YouTube Channel〉 → https://youtu.be/ykzxBJHx9SE
https://prcdn.freetls.fastly.net/release_image/28693/191/28693-191-6345c048f17573750db76321f0e13ae2-1280×720.jpg Here are some of the comments received in the survey. Comments from those who selected “Over 50,000 yen” – The market has broken out of the fluctuations from April 2012 to July 2013 and has entered a new phase. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes have led to a stronger yen, making it easier for foreign investors to invest in Japanese stocks. Corporate share buybacks are also contributing to the market’s rise. (Cat) Comments from those who selected “¥47,000 to ¥50,000” – I think the outcome of the July House of Councillors election made it clear that policies aimed at curbing inflation are unlikely to be supported. Furthermore, funds are flowing in from overseas, whether it’s for companies, condominiums, or hot spring resorts. Assuming a 15% increase from the current stock price, I’ll set the price at 49,000 yen. (Gray Christmas) – I think interest rates will rise and tariffs will begin to stabilize. (Soulman) Comments from those who selected “45,000 yen to under 47,000 yen” – With the US interest rate cut in September and a new prime minister in Japan, I think stock prices will rise in both Japan and the US. I think the Nikkei average will rise to the 45,000 yen range. After that, the US economy will likely slow due to tariffs, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, the yen will appreciate slightly, and it will settle in the 42,000 yen range. (mj3288) – Compared to the US, where monetary policy is somewhat tightening, Japan’s stock price seems undervalued, and share buybacks have been increasing rapidly, so I expect it will likely continue to rise for a while. Given Japan’s tendency to want to buy when stock prices rise and expectations of foreign purchases, I think it will surpass 45,000 yen. Maybe next year we’ll see the dream of hitting 50,000 yen… (Sylveon Isaac-Chouchou) – The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election will be held after September, and a “proactive fiscal policy” governor will be elected, creating ideal conditions for the domestic stock market. While the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% this year, market participants believe the outlook for the domestic economy (including public works projects) is bright. They also believe that foreign investors will continue to buy Japanese stocks, leading to the above-mentioned stock prices. (ac.miran (AC Milan)) Comments from those who selected “43,000 yen to under 45,000 yen” – On August 18, the Nikkei Stock Average hit a new record high of 43,714.31 yen, but I don’t feel the “mad enthusiasm” seen during the bubble economy of 1989. I’m afraid of heights, but I think it could go a little higher. (Himawari) – 1. Japanese stocks still seem undervalued to foreigners. 2. Thanks to the influence of activists, more companies are
implementing corporate reforms on their own. (Kitadake Cairn) – When making ultra-long-term stock price forecasts, I often look at annual charts. Looking at the Nikkei 225 annual chart, I think it can be divided into three periods: a long-term uptrend from the post-war period until 1989, a long-term correction from 1990 to 2011, and a long-term uptrend from 2012 to the present. Therefore, assuming that the average increase rate of 12.68% from the end of 2011 to the end of 2024 will be maintained this year, I predict the Nikkei 225 will be 44,950 yen by the end of 2025. (Bangkok native) Comments from those who selected “40,000 to 43,000 yen” – It seems like the current stock price is rising even though there’s no particular reason for it to rise significantly. Since there are often sharp drops in September, I think that’s possible this year as well. I think that after the sharp drop, the stock price will start to rise again and return to around 43,000 yen. (Alpha is important) – There’s a sense of optimism this fiscal year, with the stock price at 43,000 yen despite a forecast of lower earnings, but once the hot summer ends and the autumn breeze blows, I’ll wake up from my dream and start diligently taking profits. However, even if the stock price temporarily falls below 40,000 yen, there should still be funds available to buy, and with this trend supporting the stock price, we predict that it will be 40,000 yen by the end of the year and 44,000 yen by March 2026. (James) Comments from those who selected “38,000 yen to less than 40,000 yen” – Even with the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, the yen’s appreciation, profit compression by export-oriented companies, and cost reductions by domestic-oriented companies due to the strong yen, I expect the Nikkei average to fall, or rather, adjust, from its current level. The Bank of Japan has stated that “the underlying rate of inflation has not yet reached its price target,” but I believe it wants to raise interest rates while consumer prices are said to be high. (Yamada) Comments from those who selected “36,000 yen to under 38,000 yen” – The effects of the Trump administration’s self-righteousness and tariffs will finally begin to take effect (?) from now on, and I predict that the price will rise to around 44,000-5,000 yen before plummeting from there. (oldsugar) Some of the answers are also available on the Nikkei CNBC official website. https://www.nikkei-cnbc.co.jp/information/3151540 Survey target : Nikkei CNBC viewers Number of valid responses: 181 (active investors in their 20s to 80s) Survey period: August 18, 2025 to August 24, 2025 Survey organization: Nikkei CNBC Inc.
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