Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
[Second-hand condominium prices] “Tokyo 23 wards” and “Yokohama city” continue to soar. “Kawasaki City” and “Saitama City” show signs of change. “Chiba City” is unstable
[Mansion Research Co., Ltd.] October 2022 price revision report vol1
When buying and selling second-hand condominiums, one of the most important points for both buyers and sellers is “fluctuations in market prices.”
In this report, we will use our own indicators to predict trends in used condominium prices.
In this report, the following signs were observed as a result of considering future used condominium prices from the price trends, inventory numbers, inventory turnover rates, and price revisions in the following areas until September 2022.
23 wards of Tokyo → Continued soaring prices
Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture → Continued soaring prices Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture → Caution: Maintain the status quo in the short term, but may decline in the medium term
Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture → Caution: Signs of decline in the short term Chiba City, Chiba → Unstable situation in the short term
Why do used condominium prices fluctuate?
There is no fixed price for real estate, and the price is determined by the “agreement formation” between the seller and the buyer. If the buyer thinks the price is high, it will not sell, and if the price is too low, the seller’s profits will be damaged, so it is necessary to adjust the price to a level that both parties can agree on. This “line” is greatly influenced by the balance between “demand” and “supply”.
・Many people want to buy, few people want to sell: supply and demand ・ Few people want to buy, many want to sell: demand-supply ▶︎ used condominium prices drop
This is the principle of the market.
□ You can predict short-term price fluctuations by looking at “inventory turnover” and “number of price revisions”
Price fluctuations are basically judged after looking at long-term price trends to some extent. In other words, it is difficult to predict short-term market price fluctuations just by looking at past price trends.
However, there are “signs” before the price moves. These are the “inventory turnover ratio” and the “number of price revisions.” These two indicators make it easier to predict short-term price movements. Let me explain the terms below.
Inventory turnover rate: A number that indicates the trend. It is an index that shows how many “buyers” are in relation to the number of “sellers” at that time. The higher the number, the higher the demand.
The number of price revisions is a numerical value that indicates the behavior of real estate brokers. This is an indicator of the average number of price adjustments made between the time a stock is sold and when it is sold. The higher this number, the greater the price drop from the sale.
Second-hand condominiums are generally sold at a price higher than the seller’s desired price, and the price is revised while monitoring sales, and finally sold at around the market price at that time. The number of price changes is low when demand is high and high when demand is low.
When revising the price, the price of similar properties and sales are used as a reference. In other words, supply and demand trend = inventory turnover rate.
At Mansion Research, we predict short-term fluctuations in used condominium prices using “inventory turnover” and “number of price revisions.”
[October 2022] Future price forecast for second-hand apartments in Tokyo’s 23 wards
It is predicted that the prices of used condominiums in Tokyo’s 23 wards will continue to soar in the short to long term.
Graph 1: Inventory count and inventory turnover rate in the 23 wards of Tokyo [Image 1
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The blue bar graph in the graph above shows the number of inventories, and the gray line graph shows the inventory turnover ratio.
The number of inventories had been on a downward trend since the outbreak of the coronavirus, but started to rise around June 2021, and has been on a downward trend since the beginning of fiscal 2022. The number of stocks in September 2022 is the lowest level in recent years.
On the other hand, although the inventory turnover rate fluctuates, it has maintained a high level since the COVID-19 crisis.
Graph 2: Number of stocks and price revisions in Tokyo’s 23 wards [Image 2
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The orange bar graph in the graph above shows the number of stocks, and the blue line graph shows the number of price revisions. You can see that the number of price revisions is almost linked to the number of inventory. In September 2022, the number of price revisions has also dropped significantly as the number of inventory has reached the lowest level in recent years.
Graph 3: Changes in selling prices in the 23 wards of Tokyo
[Image 3
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
Second-hand condominium prices in Tokyo’s 23 wards continue to soar without falling even during the corona crisis.
□ Tokyo 23 wards September 2022 signs and future predictions The number of inventories has decreased again, to the lowest level in recent years
Maintained high inventory turnover ratio
The number of price revisions fell sharply
As I have told you so far, prices are forming in response to supply and demand trends in the 23 wards of Tokyo. Considering the current high price phase and the above indications, it is assumed that the price will continue to rise in the short to medium term.
[October 2022] Future price forecast for second-hand condominiums in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture
Similarly, the price of used condominiums in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture is also expected to continue to rise in the short to long term.
Graph 4: Inventory quantity and inventory turnover rate in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture
[Image 4
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
As with Tokyo’s 23 wards, the number of inventories is again declining. Although there are some fluctuations in the inventory turnover ratio, it still maintains a high level compared to before the COVID-19 crisis.
Graph 5: Number of stocks and number of price revisions in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture
[Image 5
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The number of price revisions is also almost linked to the number of inventory, as in the 23 wards of Tokyo. September 2022 is at its lowest level in recent years, an immediate reflection of the trend. Graph 6: Changes in selling prices in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture [Image 6
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The price of used condominiums in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture has a slightly higher fluctuation range than the 23 wards of Tokyo, but it maintains a rising trend.
□September 2022 signs and future predictions for Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture
Inventory Decreased Again
Maintained high inventory turnover ratio
Number of price revisions at lowest level in recent years
In Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture, we are seeing price formation that responds quickly to supply and demand trends. Since the number of price revisions has reached the lowest level in recent years, it is speculated that prices will soar in the short to medium term. [October 2022] Future price forecast for second-hand condominiums in Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture
Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture is expected to maintain its current status in the short to long term, and decline in the medium term. Graph 7: Inventory quantity and inventory turnover rate in Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture
[Image 7
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
Although the number of inventories remains at a low level, an upward trend can be seen. In addition, the inventory turnover rate, like the 23 wards of Tokyo and Yokohama City, is still at a high level compared to before the corona crisis, but it is moving in the opposite direction to the change in the number of inventories. Therefore, it is expected that the inventory turnover ratio will decrease as the number of inventories increases, as it is now.
Graph 8: Number of stocks and number of price revisions in Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture
[Image 8
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The number of price revisions also shows the same trend as Tokyo’s 23 wards and Yokohama City, and is at a low level. Since it is almost linked to the number of inventories and the high inventory turnover rate, it can be seen that the trend is reflected immediately. Therefore, it is expected to increase as the inventory turnover ratio decreases.
Graph 9: Changes in selling prices in Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture [Image 9
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
Although the price of used condominiums in Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture has soared with almost no decline since the beginning of 2022, the rate of increase is gradually declining.
□September 2022 signs and future predictions for Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture
The number of stocks is on an upward trend
Inventory turnover is expected to remain high, but decline as inventory increases
The number of price revisions remains at a low level, but is expected to increase as the inventory turnover ratio declines.
In Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture, we are seeing price formation that responds quickly to supply and demand trends. Although the number of price revisions has reached the lowest level in recent years, the rate of increase in prices has already slowed down, and the number of price revisions is expected to increase. However, it is expected to enter a downward phase in the medium term.
[October 2022] Future price forecast for second-hand condominiums in Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture
Second-hand condominium prices in Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture, are showing signs of a short-term decline.
Graph 10: Inventory quantity and inventory turnover ratio in Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture
[Image 10
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The number of inventories remains at a low level, but remains flat. On the other hand, the inventory turnover ratio shows a downward trend. Graph 11: Number of inventory items and number of price revisions in Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture
[Image 11
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The number of price revisions is on an upward trend in line with the decrease in inventory turnover. This means that supply and demand trends are reflected in the number of price changes.
Graph 12: Changes in selling prices in Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture [Image 12
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The price of second-hand condominiums in Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture has remained almost flat since the beginning of 2022, although it has repeatedly fluctuated.
□Signs and future predictions for September 2022 in Saitama City, Saitama Prefecture
The number of inventories is at a low level, but remains flat Inventory turnover is at a high level, but on a downward trend The number of price revisions is on an upward trend
Due to the decrease in the inventory turnover rate, many price revisions are thought to be putting the brakes on the price hike. Given that condominium prices have remained relatively flat over the past few months, an increase in the number of price revisions could already exert downward pressure on prices in the short to medium term. [October 2022] Future price forecast for second-hand condominiums in Chiba City, Chiba Prefecture
Second-hand condominium prices in Chiba City, Chiba Prefecture are unstable in the short term, making it extremely difficult to predict. Graph 13: Inventory count and inventory turnover ratio for Chiba City, Chiba Prefecture
[Image 13
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The number of price revisions has been on an upward trend since 2022, but September 2022 is the lowest level in recent years. Since the inventory turnover rate has been fluctuating between flat and declining, it should have been almost flat, but it is moving differently. Therefore, it seems that supply and demand trends are not reflected in the number of price revisions.
Graph 15: Changes in selling prices in Chiba City, Chiba Prefecture [Image 15
Survey by Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
The prices of pre-owned condominiums in Chiba City, Chiba Prefecture, are the most volatile among the three prefectures of Tokyo.
□September 2022 signs and future predictions for Chiba City, Chiba Prefecture The number of inventories is at a low level, but remains flat Inventory turnover is at a high level, but remains flat
Lowest number of price revisions in recent years
In Chiba City, Chiba Prefecture, there was no price formation in response to supply and demand trends. The number of price revisions also fluctuates in unexpected directions, making it difficult to predict price changes.
[Summary] The landscape of the market is gradually changing even in urban areas in Tokyo and three prefectures
In the Tokyo 23 wards and Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture, where transactions are conducted at the highest prices among the three prefectures of Tokyo, where prices were soaring, while prices are still expected to rise, Kawasaki, Saitama, and Chiba Signs of uncertainty and change are slowly emerging.
In particular, Saitama City is expected to enter a downward phase, so fixed-point observations will be essential in the future.
Mansion Research will continue to regularly send out price trends and signs of price fluctuations for used condominiums.
[Announcement] “MATSUDAKE”, a customer referral service for
prospective purchasers specializing in price revision properties, is also expanding
◯ What is “MATSUDAKE”?
By linking the property data posted on the real estate company’s own website with Mansion Research, the “real estate company” can attract customers to their website and get a reaction without any hassle, just by waiting, and “Purchase After registering the desired area, “considered users” can receive price revisions / new properties just by waiting.It is a service in which matching is established just by waiting for each other.
〇 Easy linking of property data
Mansion Research will scrape (crawl) the site of the affiliated real estate company, acquire and process the property data, and start making proposals to users, so there is no need for collaboration. By linking data once,
・Banner display on “Mansion Navi”, a media operated by Mansion Research ・Proposing properties to members (users who are considering
purchasing) who have been attracted by our company
can be performed automatically, and it is possible to continuously approach the latent and actual layers.
Since there is no need to submit any manuscripts, you can focus on improving your site and responding to the response.
Currently, the number of members has increased steadily and has exceeded 6000 people.
Regardless of whether it is new or used, it is a service that can provide value to many real estate companies because it targets “condominiums / land / detached houses” nationwide.
If you are a real estate company that wants to attract more customers to your site, please feel free to contact us.
Person in charge: Yuki
TEL: 03-5577-2041
Mail: info@kakaku-kaitei.com
[Mansion Research Co., Ltd. Other Service URL]
■ Real estate sales bulk assessment service “Mansion Navi”
https://t23m-navi.jp/
■ Real estate data cloud
https://fudosan-data.jp/
■ Robo assessment
https://robosatei.jp/
■ Condominium data sales
https://fudosan-data.jp/product/re-data/
[About Mansion Research Co., Ltd.]
Mansion Research Co., Ltd. operates a comprehensive assessment site for real estate sales. We have been collecting “analysis data of user attributes who intend to sell real estate”. Based on this data, we provide support for attracting customers, support for operational efficiency, and sell real estate-related data.
Company name: Mansion Research Co., Ltd.
Location: 5-2 Kanda Mitoshiro-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 5th floor of Daini Nissei Building
Date of establishment: April 2011
Capital: 100 million yen
Web: https://mansionresearch.co.jp/
Details about this release:
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