Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research
Decline in herd immunity level of COVID-19 and prediction of re-epidemic October 26 (Wednesday) 9:00 Review released
[Text here] https://www.tkfd.or.jp/research/detail.php?id=4094 It is important to estimate the level of herd immunity in Japan in order to predict the timing of the “eighth wave” of the new
coronavirus epidemic and to take countermeasures.
The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research (*) has continued to estimate the level of herd immunity in Japan using the SEIR infectious disease model, which divides the population into susceptibility S, incubation period E, infection I, and recovery R. This time, we conducted a simulation of changes in the level of herd immunity in five
prefectures until next spring, and published the results as a review. (*) Program member Noriyoshi Kuniya (Associate Professor, Graduate School of System Informatics, Kobe University) in the “Study on Building a Sustainable and Resilient Medical, Nursing, and Nursing Care System in the Post-Corona Era” Program (Research Director Kenji Shibuya) A research group centered on
1. We estimated the population immunity level against COVID-19 as of September 30, 2022 for five major prefectures in Japan (Hokkaido, Tokyo, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Okinawa). We also predicted the timing of the resurgence of the epidemic through a simulation that takes into account the attenuation of immunity.
2. In the four prefectures other than Okinawa, it is expected that the level of immunity will decrease to the level of the early stage of the 7th wave by the early spring of 2023 at the latest, and the 8th wave will occur. In order to prevent this, it is effective to promote booster vaccination, mainly for those who have not experienced natural infection.
3. The model in this paper can be said to be realistic in that it can take into account the decline in immunity depending on the length of stay. It may lead to overestimation of herd immunity and
underestimation of epidemics, so caution is required.
“Research on building a sustainable and resilient medical, nursing, and care system in the post-corona era”
“Research on building health resilience against health crises” https://www.tkfd.or.jp/programs/detail.php?u_id=35
Noriyoshi Kuniya Research Collaborator (Associate Professor, Graduate School of System Informatics, Kobe University)
Yasuharu Tokuda Chief Researcher, The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research Haruyo Nakamura Researcher, The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research Hirohiro Moromizato Chief Researcher, The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research Kenji Shibuya, Research Director, The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research ＊……………………………………………………………………………………＊
◇ Direction of the Tokyo Foundation Policy Research Institute ◇ It has been 75 years since the end of World War II, and society is undergoing major changes both in Japan and overseas. This major transformation will usher in a new era in Japan, in which each and every citizen will become an independent human being and will be involved in the enrichment of his or her own life and society, the revitalization of the nation, and the maintenance of peace. is bringing In addition, there is a need for a policy think tank independent of the post-war system as an innovator of policy research and practice to create this new era.
The research department of our foundation aims to be an innovator in the revitalization of Japan required by this great turning point. ◇◆Fields to work on◆◇
Based on a calm perspective on international affairs and historical perceptions, we are carrying out approximately 30 research programs in parallel in the following five areas.
I. Economy/Finance, Environment/Resources/Energy
II. Health/Medical Care/Nursing/Nursing Care
III. Education/Human Resource Development, Employment/Social Security IV. Science, technology and innovation
V. Digital revolution, transformation of social structure by digitization Location: Roppongi Grand Tower 34F, 3-2-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-6234 URL: https://www.tkfd.or.jp/
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