JX news agency
[AI analysis] World Cup Japan national team GL breakthrough
probability 26.1%, Spain win rate 21.0%
We are also running a campaign where you can get points by predicting the match result
JX Press, Inc. (Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo; Katsuhiro Yoneshige, Representative Director; hereinafter referred to as the Company) has built a unique mathematical model using AI in conjunction with the soccer World Cup being held in Qatar from November 20th. , simulated all match results 10,000 times. As a result of re-simulation based on the results of the match held from the evening of the 27th to the early morning of the 28th Japan time, it was found that the probability that the Japanese national team will advance to the group stage is 26.1%.
Information on all matches, their totals, and simulation results for each country are provided free of charge on the special site “2022 Soccer World Cup Win/Loss Probability & Winner Country AI Simulator” operated by our company. You can check it for free from all over the world in both Japanese and English. You can also check from our news app “NewsDigest”.
https://worldcup2022.newsdigest.jp/?utm_source=prtimes&utm_medium=press221128 In addition, NewsDigest is conducting a campaign that allows you to divide points by predicting the results of the Japan national team match.
3,720 users participated in the game against Costa Rica, of which 260 voted for “Japan to lose”. Users who hit the mark will receive 3,846 points (scheduled to be awarded by the end of December). Points can be exchanged for points that can be used in daily life, such as Amazon gifts.
▷ NewsDigest download URL
https://app.adjust.com/4eaelp8_2bv299t?campaign=worldcup2022_after_crc ■ GL breakthrough probability drops to 26.1%
A simulation using AI developed by our company (as of 12:00 on the 27th, Japan time) predicted a 46.0% win rate for Japan vs. Costa Rica, and a 70.8% chance for Japan to advance through the group stage. With the defeat of the Japanese national team in the match against Costa Rica, which started at 19:00, the probability of making it through the group stage dropped to 33.9%. A draw in Spain vs. Germany further lowered the breakthrough probability to 26.1%.
Japan will face the Spanish national team (kick-off at 4:00 on the 2nd) in the final match of the group stage, but the probability of winning is 21.0%.
In order for Japan to advance through the group stage, it is necessary for Germany to win or draw against Spain, and for Germany to achieve a draw or better in the match between Germany and Costa Rica, which is being held at the same time.
■ The game against Morocco is likely to break through the GL If the Japan national team advances to the group stage, they will face the 1st or 2nd place team in Group F in the round of 16. Of the four countries in Group F, Morocco is a strong candidate for breakthrough (90.5% breakthrough probability).
If Japan decides to advance to the round of 16, a match against Morocco will be a strong possibility. Japan has a 10.3% chance of advancing to the last 8, which is the highest result in the World Cup. ■ Utilize analysis know-how in elections to build a unique model In providing the “Win/Loss Probability & Winner Country AI Simulator”, we independently collect match results in past soccer World Cups, information on the abilities of each country’s national team, and match results in the most recent international matches. We built a mathematical model that predicts the outcome of a match.
Each country’s winning probability is calculated for each match card according to the actual soccer World Cup process, and the winning or losing (including the draw in the group stage) is repeated 10,000 times according to the probability. We are looking for the probability of advancing to the round of 16 and the probability of winning. By performing simulations that reflect the actual match results, the probabilities are updated every day during the tournament.
We will contribute to the creation of a more prosperous society by applying the technology related to the construction and operation of mathematical models that we have been working on for a long time, not only in the field of elections but also in a wide range of fields. ■ Other ways to earn points
The NewsDigest app has an “information provision function” where you can receive points that can be used for shopping by providing familiar information related to local safety and security, such as weather, construction, accidents, and disasters (*patent pending). In addition, it is equipped with a “discount map” function that allows you to earn points just by posting the prices of familiar foodstuffs.
■Requests for quoting and reprinting this press release
・Please post the credit of “NewsDigest/JX Tsushinsha” and the download link of NewsDigest.
■Materials we can provide
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・Interview with our representative director, development manager, public relations, etc.
*We are considering releasing the data related to this project and the original questionnaire survey information on NewsDigest in the future. If you are interested, please contact us.
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■ About JX Press
JX News Agency is a tech venture specializing in the news field. Aiming for the vision of “creating news that moves 100 million people”, “FASTALERT” delivers risk information from SNS to most media outlets in Japan, government agencies, infrastructure companies, etc., and breaking news app for general consumers. We provide “NewsDigest” and “JX News Agency Situation Survey”, a high-quality election survey service that meets the news standards.
Google Play Best App 2019 Life Useful Category Award Winner. Asia Digital Media Award 2020 New Coronavirus Infectious Disease Related Project Category Special Award. Breaking news is fast anyway, so it’s safe to put it in. In addition to news bulletins, earthquake and disaster bulletins, it is a social news bulletin app with over 5 million downloads that provides the fastest information necessary for daily life such as railway information.
Download URL: https://app.adjust.com/4eaelp8_2bv299t?campaign=worldcup2022_after_crc Details about this release: