Nielsen Gracenote Predicts Brazil, Argentina as Favorites for 2022 FIFA World Cup

Nielsen Gracenote Predicts Brazil, Argentina as Favorites for 2022 FIFA World Cup
Statistical model shows two strong South American teams outperforming other European teams by a wide margin

Gracenote, a Nielsen Group company, today announced the 2022 FIFA World Cup winner predictions. Brazil and Argentina are expected to be the two teams with the most chances of winning in the main tournament in Qatar. Using a proprietary soccer ranking system, Gracenote will run large-scale simulations of every match in the tournament to assess and estimate the odds of each team reaching the tournament stage of the competition. doing.
2022 World Cup Winner Prediction: Winning Probabilities for Each National Team [Image 1d70691-10-248eaf0bdf6652e5be71-0.png&s3=70691-10-506d2bf54188d840278d18923faa0916-1101x787.png
Knockout stage predictions: odds of each national team advancing to the knockout stages
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Gracenote believes Brazil will have a 20% chance of lifting the winners trophy as champions on December 18 at the 2022 World Cup. The Brazilian national team has lost just three of its 50 games since losing to Belgium in the 2018 World Cup, and is top of the Gracenote world football rankings.
Argentina, who are expected to perform well in this tournament, have a 16% chance of winning. A win would be the first since 1986. Argentina have lost four times since losing to France in the 2018 World Cup, but since losing 2-0 to Brazil in July 2019, they have been undefeated for more than three years, boasting overwhelming strength. increase. If the Brazilian national team and the Argentinian national team win their respective group stages in first place and progress smoothly, they will face each other in the semi-finals. Still, according to Gracenote’s simulations, the December 18 World Cup final card is the most likely matchup between Brazil and Argentina.
Among the European favorites, Spain and the Netherlands have a 7% probability, and Belgium has a 6% probability. Gracenote has a 5% chance of winning the previous World Cup champions France.
The 16 teams most likely to qualify for the knockout stage are Argentina, Brazil, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, France, Uruguay, Denmark, England, Germany, Switzerland, Ecuador, Croatia, IR Iran, Mexico.
Morocco are the most likely African side to reach the knockout stage, but they are the third favorite in Group F behind 2018 semi-finalists Belgium and finalists Croatia.
Gracenote’s Head of Sports Analytics, Simon Greaves, said: “Gracenote predicts that Brazil and Argentina, who have dominated the World Cup since the last World Cup, will outperform their competitors in the finals as well. There are no other teams left, and this consistency means that one of them is likely to win in front of fans around the world.”
2022 World Cup final match-up predictions
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Gracenote World Football Ranking
Gracenote developed soccer rankings in 2002. Based on the “Elo system” used for chess rankings, after 16 years of fine tuning, we have created our own unique rankings. The calculation method is that each time two teams face off, one “earns” points from the other based on the result, win percentage, home/away, relative strength of the two teams, etc. . World Cups and continental championships are the most important, while friendly matches are the least important. The number of points earned is weighted according to the importance of the tournament.
For example, if Brazil (ranked No. 1) beats No. 30 Costa Rica 1-0 in a friendly played on a neutral ground, Brazil’s rating would improve by relatively few points. On the other hand, if Germany beats Brazil 7-1 in the away World Cup held in Brazil, Germany will get a lot of points from Brazil and the rating will improve greatly.
Gracenote World Cup Prediction
Each rating displayed in the national team rankings is used to estimate the odds of each team winning or losing each match of the 2018 World Cup. These percentages are then used to run a million simulations to derive an estimate of the probability of each team reaching a particular stage of the competition.
During the 2022 World Cup, Gracenote will run new simulations based on the results of each match and update its predictions with the latest information. The latest predictions are posted on the Nielsen World Cup Data Hub at: About Nielsen Gracenote
Gracenote, part of the Nielsen Group and headquartered in Emeryville, USA, is a leading entertainment data and technology company. We provide content and technology for music, video and sports all over the world, and are highly trusted in various industries. With more than 200 million pieces of music information, TV listings from more than 85 countries, and detailed records and statistics on 4,500 sports leagues and competitions, our music and video recognition technology has become the industry standard. .
About Nielsen
Nielsen is the global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics, shaping the world’s media and content. Through our deep understanding of people’s behavior across all channels and platforms, we empower our clients to connect with their audiences for the future with actionable intelligence. Nielsen provides measurement and analysis services in more than 55 countries around the world. For more information, please visit our website: Details about this release:


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