30th “MONEX Global Individual Investor Survey December 2022 Survey” -The global stock market outlook DI for individual investors in the three regions has dropped significantly-
Monex, Inc. (Headquarters: Minato-ku, Tokyo; President: Yuko Seimei), a group company, TradeStation Securities, Inc. (Headquarters: Florida, USA, President Peter Korotkiy) and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Limited (Headquarters: China (Hong Kong), Ivan Law, COO) jointly conducted the 30th “MONEX Global Individual Investor Survey” from December 14th to December 27th, 2022.
2022 has been a very tough year for the stock market. The Nikkei Stock Average fell by 9.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 8.8% for the year. In addition, the Tokyo Stock Exchange Mothers Index is minus 26%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index is minus 33.1%, which is a very large minus.
The biggest reason for the extremely poor performance was that the US Fed tightened monetary policy at a historically fast pace. There is also a view that the United States may fall into recession in the future, and the market is likely to remain unpredictable in 2023. 1. Global Survey Results Survey target: Individual investors in Japan, the United States, and China (Hong Kong)
Global stock market outlook DI (Note) dropped significantly for individual investors in all three regions
[Reference: Attached report, page 2, graph 1]
When individual investors in each region were asked about their outlook for the global stock market in the next three months or so, the DI for all investors in Japan, the United States, and China (Hong Kong) decreased significantly from the previous survey (conducted in December 2021). All of them were negative. In particular, the United States saw a significant drop of 61 points from the previous survey. [World stock market outlook DI]
Japan: (December 2021) 39 → (December 2022) -15 (-54 points compared to the previous time)
United States: (December 2021) 22 → (December 2022) -39 (down 61 points from the previous time)
China (Hong Kong): (December 2021) 13 → (December 2022) -5 (down 18 points from the previous time)
(Note) DI (diffusion index): Percentage (%) of respondents
Points obtained by subtracting the ratio (%) of those who answered “I think it will get worse”
U.S. Retail Investors Have Highest Expectations for the U.S. [Reference: Attached report page 3 graphs 2-1 to 2-4]
Regarding the region where stock prices are most likely to rise in the next three months, the highest percentage of US and Japanese investors answered “US”, while Chinese (Hong Kong) investors answered “Asia (excluding Japan)”. the highest percentage.
[Expectations for the market in the next three months]
Japan: US: 39.6%, Europe/UK: 5.6%, Asia (excluding Japan): 25.9%, Japan: 28.9% US: 70.5%, Europe/UK: 4.8%, Asia (excluding Japan): 17.7%, Japan: 7.1% China (Hong Kong) US: 30.0%, Europe/UK: 6.3%, Asia (excluding Japan): 57.0%, Japan: 6.7%
2023 U.S. Market Forecasts by Individual Investors in 3 Regions [Reference: Graphs 3-1 to 3-6 on page 5 of the attached report] When we asked investors in the three regions about their high and low forecasts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2023, Japanese investors answered, “(the high price of 2022) between $36,952.65 and less than $39,000.” The percentage of investors who responded was the highest. On the other hand, investors from the United States and China (Hong Kong) had the highest percentage of respondents who answered “less than $36,952.65 (high price in 2022)”. Regarding low price expectations, Japanese investors are “(2022 low) $ 28,715.85 or more”, US investors are “$ 26,000 or more (2022 low) less than $ 28,715.85”, China (Hong Kong) of investors answered “$23,000 or more and less than $26,000,” divided among investors in three regions.
[Closing price on January 13: $34,189.97]
[Japanese individual investors]
[U.S. Individual Investor]
[Individual investors in China (Hong Kong)]
2. Survey results for Japan only (once a quarter) Survey target: Japanese individual investors
The forecast for the stock price in 2023, the highest forecast for the Nikkei Stock Average is 29,388.16 yen to less than 32,000 yen, at 46.2%.
[Reference: Graphs 6-1 to 6-2 on page 8 of the attached report] [Closing price on January 13: 34,189.97 yen]
Changes after easing restrictions on movement during the COVID-19 crisis Regarding changes in behavior after the restrictions on movement due to the spread of the new coronavirus were lifted, the most common response was that there was “no particular change”, but that “began to go out for travel and leisure” and “eating out and dining out” was the most common response. The number of visits has increased,” indicating that they are actively going out.
・For details of the survey results, please refer to the attached report. (The figures in the graph may not necessarily add up to 100.0% due to calculations after the decimal point.
About “MONEX Global Individual Investor Survey”
Since October 2009, Monex, Inc. has conducted a survey of individual investors’ awareness of the market environment and provided it as the “MONEX Individual Investor Survey.” With the establishment of securities business bases in the United States and China (Hong Kong) in addition to Japan, the Monex Group expanded the survey targets of the individual investor survey to the United States and China (Hong Kong). Monex, Inc., TradeStation Securities, Inc. and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Limited jointly conducted the “MONEX Global Individual Investor Survey” to learn about the market environment of individual investors in Japan, the United States and China (Hong Kong). We are observing the consciousness of the fixed point. [Important matters regarding transactions at Monex, Inc.]
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[About Monex, Inc.]
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